从疯狂的特斯拉说说投资

upwind66

Administrator
管理成员
作者:攀攀妈的房产经历

这两天的新闻,你很难不看到特斯拉吧,是的一个才营利一年的电动车企,2020年股票涨了7倍,尤其那史上难得一遇的国会暴袭事件之后,国会连夜把拜老爷子认证了,川老爷子也表面认怂免得被秋后算帐,市场终于等过了最大的政治不确定性,于是美股大盘也猛涨,个别股票长得更加厉害,相比起来,特斯拉还不算是最惊世骇俗的,但是再次贡献了历史新高,同时昨天(2021年1月7号)把马斯克送上了世界首富的宝位。

特斯拉这只风口上的猪,那肯定是誉满天下,谤满天下。有着强烈信念的特粉最近都赚得不少,有不少人真的就靠特斯拉股票就财富自由了;不太看不上的天天都想着明天就有可能腰斩,并且可能也暗暗郁闷自己没能上车。我在2020年慢慢在领导的带领上也相信特斯拉会是未来的万亿市值的伟大企业,绝对不是一个简单的车企,而是有着改变环境抱负的高科技公司,而马斯克是疯子一样的天才,所以波段骚操作之后,一直想等着在自己的假想上车位330左右再次买入,却一直都没有上车的机会一直到现在。。。而在昨天特斯拉上了800新高后,我又对领导进行了灵魂拷问(某人依然重仓85%的特斯拉),是不是该减仓获利离场了。

领导的原话说:不是不出,又没有房子买,有房子买自然就出了。

昨天特斯拉猛涨的时候,自然预测未来是涨是跌的新闻就会多起来,比如其中一条是关于一位44岁的富豪投资人Chamath Palihapitiya 的意见,CMBC的主持人有着跟我一样的疑问,特斯拉一年涨了7倍,马斯克全球最富,你还持有特斯拉股票吗,现在开始卖了吗?他的整段发言大家都应该看一下, 挺有意思:

Yes it’s really credible. Actually he is somebody I have known for a really long time, I’ve looked up to him for a long time. And here is what I have to say that:

是的,非常了不起的一天,我认识他很久了,也一直很崇拜他,我一直是这么认为的:

He built the great car company and somewhere along the way — you know about five or six years ago — what I thought he was building was an energy company and that eventually, people would realize that climate change actually mattered. And it’s taken five or six years for everybody to realize the same thing and he’s being rewarded. The world’s richest person should be somebody that’s fixing and fighting climate change. I think the reality is that Tesla’s a distributed energy business. They are figuring out how to harness energy, how to store it, and how to use it in a way to allow humans to be productive. Cars are a manifestation, but solar panels are as well. Powerwalls are as well.

我认为他顺手就造就了一座伟大的车企,大概五六年前我以为他要成立一家能源公司,因为人们总会意识到全球气候变暖的严重性,过了大概五六年人们才终于意识到同样的事情,而他也收到了应有的奖励。世界首富就应该是一个愿意去改善世界环境问题的人。而事实上特斯拉就是一家能源公司,他们正在寻找掌控能源的方法,如何存储,如何利用新能源从而提高人类社会的生产力。电动力如是,太阳能,Powerwall储能设备也亦然。

I am telling you right now: the big disruption that’s coming is to power utilities. There are trillions of dollars, of bonds, of capex, of value sitting inside the energy-generation infrastructure of the world, and that’s going to go upside down. And when that goes pear-shaped, Tesla will double and triple again.

我告诉你们,下一个巨大的创新就是给物业设施提供能源的科技。现在的全世界传统能源行业还包含价值上亿美金的投入,以后都会被新能源所颠覆,当那个情况发生的时候,特斯拉的股份还会再翻两倍,三倍。

I tweeted this a while ago that I thought the world’s first trillionaire would be a person fighting climate change, It very well could be Elon. But if it’s not him, it’ll be somebody like him. It will be because of this: Delivering clean energy, allowing the world to be sustainable, is an incredibly important thing that will be rewarded by markets and individuals.

我之前就发过推特,我一直都认为世界上的第一个亿万富翁就应该是一个致力于改善温室效应的人,非常有可能是伊隆(马斯克),或者和他有着同样梦想的人,但肯定会是这个领域内的为人类可再生能源而奋斗,也最终会被市场和全球投资者们认可。

I don’t understand why people are so focused on selling things that work,", let’s just you know, let’s make a number, say I own a billion dollars’ Tesla stock, if I sold it, now I have a billion dollar problem, what would I do with that money, what if it’s a hundred million, what if it’s just ten thousand, it doesn’t matter what the number is. The point is that when things are working, you’re paid to stay with people that know what they’re doing. And this is a guy who has consistently been one of the most important entrepreneurs in the world. And so why bet against him, It’s the same thing with Bezos, why bet against him. You get behind these people who have incredibly strong character, who know what they are doing, who aren’t gonna bend to short-term profit, and would just drive the trend for the next ten or twenty years to make the world a better place, get behind them. You know the best way to summarize: when the music sang, you got to dance and these guys are dancing, they are in rhythm, they are in flow, let them do their thing, you get behind them, don’t sell a share. let them create value.

我真的不明白为什么投资者总是喜欢把好公司的股票卖掉!假设我有价值十亿的特斯拉股票,如果我卖掉了股票,那么我就有一个价值十亿的问题了,用这个钱我要来投资什么别的呢,或者是一百亿,或者只有一万块,都是一样的意思。当情况进展良好的时候,你要坚定地与牛人站在一起,从而获得奖励。这个人(马斯克)是这全世界最伟大的创业者之一,为什么要跟他唱反调,同理,为什么要和贝佐斯(亚马逊创使人)唱反调?你就跟着这些人的脚步,他们极具个性,清楚地知道自己在做什么,也不会在乎短期利益,就是要为全世界变得更美好而奋斗,所以跟着他们就行了。用一句话来总结就是,当音乐响起的时候,你就跟着跳舞就好了。这些创业者们就正在跳舞,极具韵律,正踏着节奏,让他们做他们擅长的事情,你跟着就好,一股都不要卖,让他们一直创造价值。

我强烈建议大家都听听这哥们讲这段话,写下来翻译过来激情澎湃直降90%。我想持有特斯拉这样的股票就是要极具信念吧,能拿得住,回调还能再买,股票如此,房产亦如此,如果房产投资是你心之所往,认为是最稳妥也最擅长的事业,那么就不要总想着房市要泡沫了,租客要维约了,要抱着遇到问题解决问题的心态,方法总比问题多,不管股市还是房市 ,长期价值投资才是真正的王道;而且你也问自己同样的问题:股票卖了之后买什么呢,房产卖了之后再买什么 呢?再买的股票是更有潜力的成长股呢还是只是热门妖风股呢?再买的房产是不是都是人家利益收尽的呢?回到我们小家的问题,领导最近正在把Roth IRA转向self-directed IRA(毕竟特斯拉让我们赚的钱终于能够着个别房了),IRA或者股票帐户就是用来park money的,能放在特斯拉这里大赚一笔未尝不可,放在美股大盘小赚一笔也可以抵抗通胀,但是当我们最擅长的房产机会出现的时候,我们就可以套利离场转向我们更擅长的事业了。
 
顶部