2020.06.28 关于线上会议的分享

upwind66

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管理成员
作者:三马3ma

下午听了Neal Bawa 组织的TownHall Zoom meeting,干货满满,summary 如下:

  1. now it is fake economy until Govt supports expired
  2. Neal is bullish on vaccine but bearish on jobs coming back,he thinks unemployment rate will Stay 10%+ by early 2021
  3. CMBS and Freddic Fannie financing are back active for multifam,rates are around 3% for stable projects
  4. but bridgeloan for value-added projects not there,or offer at higher rate due to higher risk
  5. transaction volume down due to lack of sellers,Cap rate steady but NOI might drop a bit so price slightly down
  6. big metros losing residents to suburban cheaper cities nearby
  7. resort towns will be dead for a while
  8. hotels convert to workforce housing is happening but operational wise not easy
  9. 1 Billion SF of retail space might be available for redevlopment/repurposed,example of one big KMart convert to 300 units apt
  10. TX/NC have the most positive outlook
  11. B class property performs best,distressed opportunity in class C
  12. Be patient in this environment dont rush into a deal now
  13. Refi is good to lock in low rate debt for long time
  14. Mobile home parks prefer those with tenants owning their own mobile homes,less default risk
  15. DFW,Houston,Atlanta,NY,Miami condo inventory channels are pretty full in near future
  16. Next best opportunity is in retail and hotel spaces,retail rent collection range 20-40%,blood in H2O
  17. if try to pick up retail,financing will be tough,maybe can try seller financing
  18. not very positive Outlook on senior care/housing,its occupancy already trend down 5% Pre Covid-19
  19. Multifam at CA is scary and will get worse,mostly due to political uncertainity
  20. Student housing will have some distressed Prop come onto market,should offer at higher Cap for higher risks
 
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