2020.06.06 关于讲座的分享 - 北美地产学堂 BBS

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2020.06.06 关于讲座的分享 - 北美地产学堂 BBS 2020.06.06 关于讲座的分享 三马3ma
今早听了一个Marcus Millichap Rental housing Outlook 讲座，主要是公寓楼及Mobile Home Park，因为我两边都有投资，所以比较感兴趣，重点分享一下：

1. Realtymogual and Hometown America两个嘉宾，总共有近五万单位。
2. rent collection mid 90s，except NY region was lower. Expect robust rent collection going forward.
3. Rent strike made lots of noise 雷声大雨点小，not seeing a movement. But city/State level laws are more stricted and went overboard in tenant protection.
4. New leasing activities pick up，maybe $200 concession for signing up new lease for Apt
5. expect to see Fed and Govt to continue financial support 泵水行动继续下去，beyond July and last for a while longer
6. some jobs may not come back after Covid-19，but going in prior to Pandemic we have accumulated 1.4M units in housing shortage during last 10 years，especially workforce housing
7. Expect moderated Vacancy increase for 2021，but some submarkets such as Austin NC Denver will outperform
8. MHP expects to see 3% rent grow for 2021，Apt expects to see 0% rent grow in next 24 months，some big metros will experience negative rent grow
9. SFH and built-to-rent and larger Apt units are more attractive as folks look for more individual spaces and possibly WFH
10. Both guests dont think V shape recovery is possible，dont fool by stock market. Nike swoosh is more likely. 11. Among these two asset classes，MHP believes to be more insolated and immune to the downturn cycle.
11. Apt Cap of 5.1，MHP 7.4 are National avg. Yield spread widen to 440bps for Apt，very wide range historically speaking
12. rate will Stay low for long time，floating rate debt will become an viable option. Negative rate could be a possibility in next couple years
13. Both companies are a net buyers at this time，Apt may see 6-8% price drop but MHP wont see any。Time and inflations are dear friends of RE，let them ride
14. Dont expect to see wild spread wave of distressed sales，but always will have some situational stressed sales，on the lookout for opportunity，more conservative when doing due dilligent and underwriting，不打无准备之仗

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